Minnesota Real Estate Investors Association, Inc.

25% of all listing had a price reduction last month and inventory levels are rising. We are still in a sellers’ market, but we are transitioning into a buyers’ market.  When that happens, sellers buyers become picking and stubborn sellers slowly become more receptive.  The first phase of this transition is for sellers to drop their asking prices, and that is starting to happen. 

The next phase, if interest rates remain high, will shock the sellers and if they have to sell, they will drastically drop their price to get a sale and that has a snowball affect on prices.  The only thing that can help the sellers now is for inventory levels to remain low and interest rates to drop a little.

Bank financing is getting harder to qualify for, interest rates are rising, and people are getting scared.  This is exactly what most investors have been waiting for.  Opportunity is brewing, the question is, are you ready for the coming storm? 

Inflation is destroying the value of the dollar. Every time this has happened in the past, people look for other investments and commodities to beat inflation or at lease does not lose too much value from it.  Hard assets like gold and silver tend to do well in times of out-of-control federal spending and inflation.

Real estate is another hard asset that does well over time. This is why so many people are looking to put their money into real estate.  Real estate investors are struggling to find good deals right now, but as the storm approaches, deals will become more readily available, however, the easy bank financing is also drying up.  This presents a problem to investors who have not prepared for this and started to raise their own private financing. 

Having access to private money is a game changer and will separate the doers from the wantabees.  You see most people get into real estate when things are going up because they heard about all the money that can be made in real estate.  However, that money was mad by the dowers who bought when everyone else was getting out and then resold years later to the new investors getting in.  It’s a vicious cycle, the question is, when will you be the buyer?  When everyone is getting out so that you can be the seller when everyone is getting back in, or when everyone is getting back in?

The simple answer is yes.  The correct answer is a little more complicated than a simple yes or no.  There are many factors to take into consideration and there are pros and cons to selling at any time.

Here are the top 3 things you need to consider before answering that question for yourself.

1. Do I/we need to sell right now?
2. Do I/we need to buy another house when I/we sell?
3. Why do I/we need to sell?

1) Do you really need to sell right now or are you just thinking about selling because of the high market prices?  There are many reasons to sell, but high market prices is probably the worst reason unless you are an investor.

2) If you need to purchase another house in order to sell, then you will have a hard time in a strong buyer’s market finding a replacement home.  In this case it would be best to find a new home first, then sell your existing home.  The problem is if you sell your current place, you will probably have to overbid on a property to get one under contract to close on your time frame.

3) Why do you need to sell right now? If you have a reason to sell then you will be able to make logical decisions because you have a clear reason.  If you just want to sell to see what the market will bring or to access cash from the property, then you might make some bad decisions because you don’t have a clear reason why.

If you have a clear reason why you have to sell, then give us a call because we have flexible options to might make the process a much more smother transition and most people tell us that it reduces their stress level knowing that they have a buyer that can work with them on their time schedule.

We live in uncertain times.  After the mortgage meltdown and the almost collapse of the financial industry, the real estate market has been going through several ups and downs.  The median sales price in my area went from its peak of $238,000 in June 2006 to a low of $138,500 in February 2012, back up to $210,000 in June of 2013 and we are on our way back down, currently sitting at $179,850 for January 2014.

There have been some wild swings in the past few years and the people that understand that and have kept a close eye on the trends, and have not been afraid of the market have made a lot of money the past few years.  However, I have seen most people sitting on the fence and haven’t done anything.  I can understand the feeling of uncertainty and being afraid to make a mistake, but let’s face it, if you’re afraid to make a mistake, you will never make it big.

You’re probably thinking right now “That’s easy for you to say Mike; you’ve been at this for a long time and have more experience than I do”.  While for many of you, that may be true, however, for your info, I have probably made more mistakes than most of you ever will, and I am still making mistakes.  But that is not holding me back.

That is one of the most common traits I see from those who are successful, even in this wild and uncertain market.  They are not afraid to make a mistake, and often do, but they don’t let that hold them back.

Everyone wants to minimize their risk of making a mistake and losing money or damaging their credit, myself included.  However, I see way to many people with paralysis of analysis and never do anything.  So what’s holding you back? 
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Over the past, the most common question I have heard is “what are you going to do about the Dodd-Frank Act”?  And my common responses have been, “not worry about it” or “understand it and work around it”.  So what is your response, and will you survive not that the dastardly bill that is now in full affect?

Many people are worried that this new law that has been in effect since January 10, 2014 will put them out of business.  There are many new regulations pertaining to lending and one segment in particular that affects investors the most, especially in the coming years with our current economic situation and that is seller financing.  People are worried that these new regulations will have a dramatic impact on our business, and I have heard several people predict that parts or all of the Dodd-Frank law will be repealed.

I don’t put a lot of faith in congress repealing anything these days.  Look at Affordable Health Care for instance; does it look like that will be repealed?  No, so why would you expect the Dodd-Frank Act to be any different?  The Dodd-Frank Act was a response to the sub-prime mortgage meltdown crisis to put the blame on a segment of the economy that was politically acceptable and to repeal it now would be an admission to that fact.  In an attempt not to offend certain political ideologies here, I will not get into the cause of the sub-prime mortgage meltdown crisis, or the political reasons for appealing the Dodd-Frank Act, but I will explain what it means to us as investors.

Here is the simple break down, as I understand it.
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This spring the market was chugging along just fine.  Then a 30 year fixed rate loan increased to just under 5% and the market came to a crashing halt. During the months of August and September, one of our largest local lenders saw a 72% decline in new and refinance mortgage applications and retail, renovated properties seemed to just sit there if they were priced a little high. 

Interested rates dropped by a mere half percent and houses that were sitting there started selling again and mortgagee applications returned to the same levels as they were in June and July.

I am assuming that the Feds will keep rates low for the foreseeable future because the economy is still too fragile, as evidence by less than a 1% rate increase in the real estate market.

Ok, so it’s been a while since I have been able to post any updates to the blog.  This spring we were busy buying, selling and rehabbing houses.  Plus I spent a lot of time building and improving our website and member management and event registrations system call PROS – Professional REIA Operating System for REIA’s (Real Estate Investors Association).  And now we are spending our time creating new marketing campaigns and chasing down anything that might smell like a lead.

So what’s going on in the markets right now?  There are several issues we are dealing with lately.  Most recently, Interest rates have started to climb and there is a huge lack of inventory.  The lack of inventory can be explained by the rise of hedge funds buying billions of dollars worth of inventory directly off the market and from the banks, pulling most of the Shadow Inventory, out of the shadows. 

That is one of the primary reasons for the lack of inventory, but not the only one.  The banks stopped filing foreclosures, or at least slowed way down last year to deal with other issues, including packaging up shadow inventory for the hedge funds.  The banks are back on track now, but all that inventory that would have been hitting the market right now, is just now going through the foreclosure process and is expected to hit the markets later this year.

I have been hearing from fairly reliable sources, that the amount of expected foreclosures over the next few years is equal to the amount of foreclosures that have already happened over the past few years.  It should be an interesting next few years.

“Get Off Your Butt and go Buy a House.”  This is a statement I had heard years ago from an old friend when I was complaining about being a broke struggling want to be investor, so I listened to her and did it. That was back in the late 90’s and it was a good ride for many years.  But the last few years have been tough on a lot of real estate investors, me included.  Many of us had to hunker down, retrench and then recover from our battle wounds.  The length of recover was/is directly proportional to the magnitude of your original symptoms.  Some people unfortunately didn’t have the financial or emotional strength to weather the storm which I completely understand as I was almost one of them.  But now it is time to look forward and plan for the future rather than having to deal with repercussions from the past. 

I understand that there will still be a few things we all need to deal with from the past few years as we move forward, but move forward we must, and this is the year to do it.  Even though last year was a relatively good year for real estate investing, it was still a tough year for many investors because of all the competition and the lack of inventory on the market.  I personally struggled finding rehabs as well.  Between my partner and me, we looked at over 400 properties, make close to 200 offers and only got one MLS offer accepted.  Looking back, off all the properties that we made offers on that sold, they were all in multiple offer situations.  Even though we had plenty of cash to buy and always offered quick closings without contingencies, we were always out bid with very similar offers.  Many of those other properties that didn’t sell are still on the market and still overpriced. 
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Beginning on January 1, 2013, a new real estate capital gains tax will take effect to pay for Obama Care. When Obama Care was passed back on March 23, 2010, one of the funding measures was to take from Medicare.

“Bet you didn’t know that, did you?”

So how are they going to recover those costs for Medicare that they stole for Obama Care? Simply increase taxes on real estate and other interest and dividends. This new 3.8% tax is expected to raise $210 billion over the next 10 years.

The new 3.8% Tax Rate applies to:

• Individuals with adjusted gross income (AGI) above $200,000
• Couples filing a joint return with more than $250,000 AGI

Types of Income:

• • Interest, dividends, rents (less expenses), capital gains (less capital losses)

The new tax applies to the LESSER of:

• Investment income amount
• Excess of AGI over the $200,000 or $250,000 amount
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