Minnesota Real Estate Investors Association, Inc.

Everyone knows that as interest rates rise, real estate prices drop.  It is only natural.  If the current interest rate is 4% on a $300,000 loan, the monthly PI (Principle & Interest) payment is $1,432.25.  If the interest rate goes up to 7% and the average buyer can only afford a monthly payment of $1,432.25, then the maximum amount they can borrow goes down to $215,277.40.

This is affectively what has happened over the past year and a half, so why have prices continued to climb?  That’s a great question and can be explained by the extremely low inventory levels.  The level of inventory has been so low for so long that the principles of supply and demand have caused prices to increase dramatically. 

In other words, if interest rates hadn’t risen so much so fast, the average loan balance may have risen to $565,000.  That is what the borrowers could afford based on the current average monthly PI payment of $2,700 and an interest rate of only 4%.

The following chart shows the affect interest rates have on a borrowers ability to pay over the past 18 months.

Yah… Your mortgages are going to cost you more to help offset the cost of people who have bad credit, isn’t that wonderful?  Yes, it’s true, beginning May 1, 2023, upfront fees for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be adjusted because of changes in the Loan Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs).

Example, beginning May 1, 2023, a buyer with a good credit score of 750 who puts down 25% on a $400,000 home would now pay 0.375% in fees on a 30-year loan, or $1,125, compared to 0.250%, or $750, under the previous fee rules, which is an increase of $375.

Meanwhile, a buyer with a credit score of 650 putting a 25% down payment on a $400,000 home would now pay 1.5% in fees on a 30-year loan, or $4,500. That compares with 2.75%, or $8,250, under the previous rules, which is a decrease of $3,750.

It is true that the increase to buyers with good credit is a small percentage of the overall loan and the borrowers with poor credit are still paying more, albeit less than before.  However, why should those of us who have worked hard and shown prudent money management and done without some things to build up good credit have to pay to lower the costs of those who have not suffered as much as those of us that have built good credit.

25% of all listing had a price reduction last month and inventory levels are rising. We are still in a sellers’ market, but we are transitioning into a buyers’ market.  When that happens, sellers buyers become picking and stubborn sellers slowly become more receptive.  The first phase of this transition is for sellers to drop their asking prices, and that is starting to happen. 

The next phase, if interest rates remain high, will shock the sellers and if they have to sell, they will drastically drop their price to get a sale and that has a snowball affect on prices.  The only thing that can help the sellers now is for inventory levels to remain low and interest rates to drop a little.

“There is no victory at bargain basement prices.” – Dwight Eisenhower

Prices are on the rise everywhere right now. What about yours? 

From just a few pennies to outright sticker shock, hiking prices is one of the quickest paths to losing customers. But you’ve got ends to make meet, too. 

Our inflation series continues with one of the most pressing problems for businesses today: How much you need to increase your pricing models – and what to think about before you do. 

Worry and response

Current inflation is 8.6% year over year, a seemingly endless upward direction that worries most businesses. Almost nine out of 10 have told surveys that they’re also already seeing the hit in higher expenses such as supplies and services, some by as much as 50%. Throw in employees probably wanting above-average raises and you’ve got a compound problem. 
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Bank financing is getting harder to qualify for, interest rates are rising, and people are getting scared.  This is exactly what most investors have been waiting for.  Opportunity is brewing, the question is, are you ready for the coming storm? 

Inflation is destroying the value of the dollar. Every time this has happened in the past, people look for other investments and commodities to beat inflation or at lease does not lose too much value from it.  Hard assets like gold and silver tend to do well in times of out-of-control federal spending and inflation.

Real estate is another hard asset that does well over time. This is why so many people are looking to put their money into real estate.  Real estate investors are struggling to find good deals right now, but as the storm approaches, deals will become more readily available, however, the easy bank financing is also drying up.  This presents a problem to investors who have not prepared for this and started to raise their own private financing. 

Having access to private money is a game changer and will separate the doers from the wantabees.  You see most people get into real estate when things are going up because they heard about all the money that can be made in real estate.  However, that money was mad by the dowers who bought when everyone else was getting out and then resold years later to the new investors getting in.  It’s a vicious cycle, the question is, when will you be the buyer?  When everyone is getting out so that you can be the seller when everyone is getting back in, or when everyone is getting back in?

 When you first think of the consequences of rising interest rates, you could naturally conclude that would drive real estate prices down.  Over the long haul, you would be right.  However, when you look at what is going on now as rates are rising, you might be shocked to see that both rates and prices are rising together.

Mortgage rates have been increasing steadily since the begging of the year 2022.  At the beginning of the year, mortgage rates were right around 3.2%.  As of the end of April 2022, mortgage rates have risen to around 5.2%. Some resources are show as high as 6.1% as of this writing.

The interesting thing is that the median sales price for real estate is also increasing. The median home values of Minnesota, my home state is currently $326k, the twin cities metro area is a little higher at $340k. 

So why are prices still increasing at the same time interest rates are also increasing.  To explain that you need to have a little understanding of economics.  In the simplest form, when supply is high and demand is low, rates tend to drop lower to encourage borrowing.  This is one of the tools that the federal reserve uses to spur growt
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Lordy, people, there are SO many ways to put together real estate deals. SURELY there’s one out there that you’ll like/understand/benefit from.

If you don’t like full-on wholesaling—maybe because ugly houses repel you, or some of the areas that work well aren’t neighborhoods in which you want to spend time, or you don’t like making super-low offers—then learn how to do creative deals, and flip those.
     
Creative financing techniques—buying properties using seller-held mortgages, contracts for deed, lease/options, and subject to the existing loan—are usually thought of as ways for you, the buyer, to control real estate for some period of time so that you can exercise some exit strategy that requires control.
     
For instance, you might buy a property subject to the existing loan so that you can renovate it and rent it for the long term. Or you might get a “split funds” seller mortgage for a year because you intend to renovate and resell the property within that year. Or you might control the property with a lease with the option to buy so that you can sell it with a lease with the option to buy (with, of course, a higher overall price, higher down payment, and higher monthly payment coming to
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            One of the most boring topics – to most real estate investors, anyway -- is insurance.  That’s why so many get themselves in trouble when it’s too late to do anything about it. 

             As a real estate investor, you NEED to understand the basics of insurance that directly impacts your business.  Property insurance and liability insurance are the backbone of your business’s asset protection plan. Having a major insurance issue – and not having the proper insurance coverage in place – could easily cause your real estate business to go OUT of business, and take all the wealth you’ve built up over time down the drain with it.

            Our goal, thru these articles, is to provide a better basis to your real estate insurance knowledge so that you can ask the right questions and make the right decisions when it comes to your insurance.

            The first topic, as a basis of understanding, is to discuss “reconstruction value” versus “street value”.  Too often people use street value—what the property would sell for today—to try to determine what value they need to use to insure a property.

      &n
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That is the question every rehabber asks himself/herself.  Many cities and states don’t legally require that all contractors be licensed (though most require that plumbers, electricians, HVAC contractors, and the like are). But even in places where a license IS required, there are plenty of unlicensed folks who are happy to do jobs ‘under the table’.

The natural thinking among real estate investors is that we can save money by not using licensed folks: that if I use a licensed contractor the job is going to cost me more money.  

Yes, I have asked that question myself.  And I have tried to cut corners by hiring the “handyman” who is not licensed.  Here are a few of the results I have seen.

1. On an early project I discovered the contractor who was doing excellent work, had a cooler on the job.  I didn’t think much about that until I noticed beer cans on the job site.  So, I dropped in one day unexpectedly and discovered my contractor was drinking beer on the job.  When questioned, he replied, “I’m doing fine.  I am perfectly OK to do the job while drinking.  To prove it, I can trim my thumb nail with this power miter saw and will not cut myself.  Here, let me show you.”  He didn’t get the ch
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              Beginning investors have a tendency to get stressed out by the very thought of “negotiation”.

              They put off calling sellers (or calling them BACK) for days and days. They worry about what the seller might say and what they should say back to the seller.

              It’s as if they believe that something they could say to the seller—or fail to say—would make that seller motivated or not motivated.

      The truth is, sellers come to you already motivated or not motivated, and what YOU say doesn’t change that one way or another. And since that very important fact is completely out of your control, that means that the only thing you actually need to worry about in a “negotiation” is

1. Building rapport
2. Getting the information you need
3. Protecting your time

              To that end, there ARE some things that experienced real estate entrepreneurs do, and do consistently, to maximize that chances that any given seller negotiation will be a successful one.

•               Balance your need to get the information quickly
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